Trust in Voting Is Absolutely Necessary

Does your vote matter? Let's hope so.

In 2016, Hillary Clinton lost the election for President due to a few tens of thousands of votes in 4 states that went to Donald Trump, allowing him to win the Electoral College and the Presidency. In 2020, Donald Trump lost the election for President due to a few tens of thousands of votes in 4 states that went to Joe Biden. Again, this enabled Joe Biden to win the Electoral College and the Presidency. Had those states had just a few thousand votes go differently, we would be nearing the end of Trump’s second term.

After the 2016 election, Democrats believed the election was stolen through a combination of Russian election meddling and Donald Trump colluding with the Russian spy services. After the 2020 election, Republicans believed the election was stolen by pervasive voter fraud in states that were very close. Both of these issues are ones that we can address, and should. But first, let’s look at whether fraud (either election meddling or voter fraud) could change the election.

Does our vote matter? Or is the election being decided in a smoke filled back room?

The Narrow Margin of Victory Issue

3 states separated Biden and Trump between a Biden win and a Biden-Trump tie: Arizona, Michigan, and Georgia. A 4th state, Pennsylvania, was the decisive state for Biden’s victory. In total, 5 states had razor thin margins that gave the election to Biden.

Total Votes Cast

• Arizona - 3,387,326

• Georgia - 4,997,716

• Michigan - 5,539,302

• Pennsylvania - 6,915,283

• Nevada - 1,405,376

Biden margin of votes to win

• Arizona - 10,457 or .3% of total votes cast

• Georgia - 12,670 or .25% of total votes cast

• Pennsylvania - 81,660 or 1.2% of total votes cast

• Nevada - 33,596 or 2.4% of total votes cast

• Michigan - 154,188 or 2.8% of total votes cast

Did Fraud Happen?

Now, a lot of folks believe strongly that fraud played a part in the election, while another lot of folks insist that it was a clean and fair election and there was no fraud.

We can figure out a lot of this just by applying our own reason to the question

Let’s think about the latter position first. If we stop and think about it, we know that fraud occurs in every election. There is no way with millions of votes cast that they are 100% pure and legal and proper. Some number of them are fraudulent. Indeed, as short a time ago as the 1960’s elections in Chicago were decided by the Daley Machine, who committed significant fraud to make it happen. And everyone knew it. It was a publicly accepted fact.

The controls over voting today are no different than in 1960’s Chicago. In fact, with early voting and mail-in voting and mail-in voter registration, arguably it is easier to commit fraud now than in 1960. Let’s dispose immediately of the absolute position that there was no fraud in 2020.

Okay, so there was fraud. Was there enough to decide the election? That is, in at least 3 states, more likely 4, were they going to go for Trump but fraud added enough Biden votes to change the margin to Biden winning?

What About Fraud And The 2020 Election?

Here’s what we all know. The election of 2020 was incredibly unusual, with mail-in voting, early voting, registration on demand at the ballot box, provisional registration, and much more. And all these changes were made very close to the election without going through the legislative process, for the most part. Anything that makes it easier to commit fraud is going to ensure some amount of fraud.

But was it enough? If we look back up at those numbers, two states were determined by less than 1% of the total voters. It seems likely to me that in any given state wide election, there are 10,000 votes that are fraudulent in some fashion. I fill out my dead family member’s ballot, for example. I’m a non-citizen who registers to vote and gets a ballot. I am a worker in a nursing home and I “help” all the residents fill out their ballots, including the ones with dementia. And so on.

Now, do we really think that it’s less than 10,000 votes out of 5 million in Georgia? One percent seems easily likely in a situation with no actual controls to prove that the person voting is a legal, registered voter. Maybe more. There are no good controls in place, so a determined group of criminals could likely cast more than 50,000 fraudulent ballots in Georgia in 2020, which is 1%. So, could fraud change the election outcome in Georgia? Almost certainly. Did it? It seems possible, although without a really deep forensic review of ALL votes cast in Georgia, we will never know for sure.

What about the other states with razor thin margins? Maybe. And we are never going to know the truth.

Okay, What Do We Do?

But here’s what we do know. Americans, ALL Americans, need to be able to trust their elections. And that means we need some changes. We can’t have elections where one party doesn’t trust the other to not cheat. So, put the controls in place to prevent or reduce cheating and give us back our trust.

Voter ID, vote on the day of the election, vote in person, register in person with proof of citizenship. No electronic voting machines. Paper trail records of casting a vote. These are not hardships, they are part of the privilege of participating in a representative democracy.

It won’t happen for 2024. But it can happen for 2028. Let’s demand it be so.